LORG 2017 Week 8 Primer

Written by: Ray Butler

Nearly a third of the regular season has come and gone.

It’s been a weird, wacky LORG season thus far. Injuries have plagued several teams (thanks, 10 day DL), and some rosters already look drastically different than they did on Opening Day.

The roster changes will almost certainly be continual, as some owners will see the writing on the wall and begin selling. Other teams (including some teams that probably shouldn’t) will gladly throw away what were seemingly important parts to their future in order to compete in 2017. Those will eventually be the trades that we look back on and laugh about.

The projections have spoken, and here’s what they say will go down in week 8:

South Correa vs. The Disabled List- Projection: South Correa wins 9-4-1

You know what they say: Save the best for first. This matchup *should* play much closer than the projected score. John barely nudged Zach in a couple of categories, thus the score. Regardless, this looks like a matchup between two teams who are locked into the top half of the standings. John’s team showed some major signs of life last week, and I think that carries over into this week.

Sausage Party vs. Mookie Monsters- Projection: Mookie Monsters wins 9-4-1

Gregg will probably be able to put this one in cruise control by Friday. And that’s no diss on Adam’s team; Gregg could fly to a foreign country each Wednesday, fly back on Monday morning and win most of his matchups. And while Adam may not make the kind of noise that lands him in the playoffs, he’ll continue competing every single week. It’s certainly not the cupcake we thought it would be before the season began.

The Magnificent 7-7s vs. Logan’s Heroes- Projection: A 7-7-0 tie

Fun fact: As I was creating these projections before the beginning of the regular season, Bobby and Ben matched up so closely it was ridiculous. The projections practically made them look like the same team. And while both of these guys have outperformed expectations, Ben has been on a little bit more of a roll than Bobby. This one will be fun, and, if we’re lucky, we could get some 7-7-0 magic.

Joe Buck Yourself vs. Super Gurriel Bros- Projection: Super Gurriel Bros wins 9-4-1

This is “How much can I help myself?” week for Matt. We all get two. This projection may end up being a little light (in other words, it may be more of a bludgeoning than 9-4-1), but Van is also due to conquer the impossible and win one of these matchups. Heck, someday, he’ll even field a full active lineup. I’ve found the most “Matt” player on Matt’s team: Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod was passed around this league like hot cakes, but Matt makes the move to bring him in and he finally plays to his insanely good potential. This isn’t luck, either.

SeagerShine vs. A Krismas Story- Projection: A Krismas Story wins 10-4-0

Frank wants me to work my voodoo on one of his outfielders, but the truth his none of his outfielders really need any voodoo. Conforto, Judge, Brantley, Ozuna. Who woulda thunk that foursome would join to form one of the most formidable outfields in the league? Let’s really test my voodoo. You know who I really think was a solid pickup? Cameron Rupp. I think Frank may have really found something there. His neck is larger than most of our lives and he’s been getting on base at an acceptable rate. The power *should* pick up, too. Perhaps sooner rather than later……………….

Oh, the matchup? These projections keep underrating Franky. Unless McKinnon wins 10-4-0, then these projections are GOD. Frank is the biggest overachiever in the league so far; McKinnon has played to his exact projections so far (literally, he hasn’t outperformed or underperformed at all. Yes, that is me patting myself on the back). I’m ready to see how this one plays out.

Inconsistent Team vs. Acuna Matata- Projection: Acuna Matata wins 8-5-1

Know that gif that I send to the group every once and awhile of the horse tripping over a large ball? That’s this matchup. What was once a theoretical matchup between two bonafide playoff teams has turned into a matchup between one team that’s completely out of the projected playoffs and another that is on the brink of being on the outside looking in. Very, very little has gone right for either of these teams this season. A combined ELEVEN players on the DL, this contest will be determined by whoever can manage to suck the least.

Here’s a look at the season-long projections as they currently stand:

Rank Team Win Loss Tie % % ∆ GB
1 Mookie Monsters 197 94 17 .677 -.001
2 South Correa 178 110 20 .618 -.039 17.5
3 The Disabled List 160 131 17 .550 +.019 37
4 Super Gurriel Bros 159 136 13 .539 +.032 40
5 A Krismas Story 157 137 14 .534 E 41.5
6 Acuna Matata 157 137 14 .534 -.059 41.5
7 Inconsistent Team 147 143 18 .507 -.071 49.5
8 The Magnificent 7-7s 150 147 11 .505 +.046 50
9 Logan’s Heroes 139 155 14 .473 +.014 59.5
10 Sausage Party 115 178 15 .392 +.018 83
11 SeagerShine 112 182 14 .381 +.054 86.5
12 Joe Buck Yourself 82 210 16 .281 -.029 115.5

Most Overperforming Team: SeagerShine (Now projected to win 16 more games than original projection)

Most Underperforming Team: Inconsistent Team (Now projected to win 23 fewer games than original projection)

To update you, on average, the season-long projections are currently nine games (in either direction) of each team’s projected win-loss-tie record.

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