LORG 2017 Week 10 Primer

Written by: Ray Butler

We’re two weeks away from the second half of the LORG regular season, and currently, five of the top six teams are within five games of each other. Three of those teams didn’t make the playoffs last season. The final three months are going to be an amazing ride.

Here’s the projections for week 10:

South Correa vs. A Krismas Story- Projection: South Correa wins 9-4-1

Raise your hand if you had McKinnon three spots higher than John thru nine weeks of the regular season. That’s the world we currently live in, though John has been on an absolute tear lately. With McKinnon back in the states this week, we’ll see if he has any jet lag against a top-notch opponent *rim shot*.

Sausage Party vs. Joe Buck Yourself- Projection: Sausage Party wins 9-4-1

The 2017 War of Ineptitude is here. A potential 2019 playoff matchup, Adam vs. Van this season will be a battle of who can suck the least. Van had a solid week last week, and it’ll be interesting to see if an 8-5 loss will become the new norm with an evolving team or if it was simply a flash in the pan. Either way, the box score from this one will be worth looking up on Sunday.

The Magnificent 7-7s vs. The Disabled List- Projection: The Disabled List wins 8-5-1

The second matchup of the week featuring two top-six teams, this is probably the matchup I’m most excited about in week 10 (yes, that includes my own). This feels like a high-floor matchup that’ll be close regardless of whether these two teams light it up or stink all week. What are the odds that both of these teams make the playoffs? That’s a legitimate question, feel free to shoot me an answer on GroupMe. I’ll say 15/1. J.A. Happ returns for Zach’s squad this week, which is nice especially when you consider that Vince Velasquez will likely miss an extended period of time. There’s a chance Jameson Taillon makes a major league start before the end of the week, which would make Ben a Taijuan Walker blister away from being at 100% pitching health. Keep an eye on this matchup, folks.

Mookie Monsters vs. Inconsistent Team- Projection: Mookie Monsters wins 8-5-1

This was supposed to be one of the better LORG matchups of the 2017 season! It likely won’t be. Thankfully, at some point this week, Caleb is finally slated to welcome the return of both Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Turner. They likely won’t put up the numbers that will greatly impact Caleb’s matchup with Gregg, but it’ll be worth watching nonetheless. Gregg continues to roll right along, and he’s also at full-health thanks to Josh Donaldson’s return. Does that mean that the injuries are yet to come, or are the baseball gods paying Gregg back for an injury-riddled homestretch last season? We’ll see.

Super Gurriel Bros vs. SeagerShine- Projection: Super Gurriel Bros wins 10-4-0

Who could have predicted that the loss of Eduardo Rodriguez would be a big blow to Matt’s team? Word out of Boston is that Rodriguez may miss around a month, which gives Matt more than enough time to work his wizardry and pull another star out of his hat. Meanwhile, the team that was once thought of as this year’s Cinderella seems to be dwindling. (What if Julio Teheran isn’t all that good?). (What if Matt Harvey isn’t good anymore?). Frank’s final win-loss record and place in the standings at the end of this season don’t really matter. Those two questions do. I feel like if the sun isn’t fully ready to set on SeagerShine’s (get it?) 2017 campaign, we’ll see signs of life this week.

Logan’s Heroes vs. Acuna Matata- Projection: Acuna Matata wins 9-5-0

There’s not much that’s exciting about this one. At least the Adam/Van matchup has some “Just how bad will this be?” upside to it. This contest? Nothing. I do hope the Stanley Cup final extends to six or seven games so Bobby’s full attention won’t be on fantasy baseball. Also, Jose Altuve has reached base in every game the Astros have played since May 26th. Furthermore, it’s June and Jedd Gyorko is batting over .300. Life, man. Thankfully for me, Aroldis Chapman will allegedly return less than two weeks from now, and Carlos Rodon is set to begin a rehab assignment this week. Bring me all of the good health you have.

Here’s what the projected standings look like thru 9 weeks:

Rank Team Win Loss Tie % % ∆ GB
1 Mookie Monsters 195 94 19 .675 -.001
2 South Correa 177 112 19 .612 -.045 18
3 The Disabled List 160 132 16 .548 +.017 36.5
4 Super Gurriel Bros 162 134 12 .547 +.040 36.5
5 Acuna Matata 159 133 16 .545 -.048 37.5
6 A Krismas Story 160 134 14 .544 +.010 37.5
7 The Magnificent 7-7s 151 145 12 .510 +.051 47.5
8 Inconsistent Team 141 151 16 .483 -.095 55.5
9 Logan’s Heroes 136 157 15 .464 +.005 61
10 Sausage Party 116 177 15 .396 +.022 81
11 SeagerShine 114 179 15 .389 +.062 83
12 Joe Buck Yourself 81 211 16 .277 -.033 115.5

Most Overperforming Team: SeagerShine (Now projected to win 18 games more than original projection)

Most Underperforming Team: Inconsistent Team (Now projected to win 29 games fewer than original projection)

To date, the season-long projections are, on average, 10 games (in either direction) of each team’s projected win-loss-tie record.

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