LORG 2017 Week 11 Primer

Written by: Ray Butler

We’re one week away from being at the midpoint of the 2017 fantasy baseball season. At this point, we are what we are. Some of us will chill and cruise into the playoffs, some of us will hang on for dear life for the next eleven weeks, some of us will fall apart and hilariously miss the playoffs, some of us will do just enough to ease into the playoffs, and some of us haven’t had a prayer of making the playoffs this season since the drop of the green flag in April.

Whatever happens, it’s sure to be an amazing, memorable ride.

Here’s what the projections say will happen in the final week of the first half of the regular season.

South Correa vs. Inconsistent Team- Projection: South Correa wins 8-5-1

Caleb actually hung around for awhile against Gregg last week before bowing out late, and hopefully the returns of Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Turner provide his offense with a nice boost. But I’ll go ahead and make a bold prediction: Without any insider information, I’m predicting that a trade of some sort is made this week that involves Caleb. I feel like it’s about that time. Meanwhile, John’s offense was sluggish last week and it played a large role in his (surprising?) loss to McKinnon. It really seemed like John’s squad had genuinely pulled it together and was done having lackluster weeks; maybe the magic will be rekindled this week.

Sausage Party vs. The Disabled List- Projection: The Disabled List wins 9-4-1

A well-managed Sunday fueled Zach to an impressive victory against higher-ranked Ben last week, and now he’ll seemingly be rewarded by getting to play Adam this week. Think about this sentence: Mark Reynolds, Robbie Ray, and Ervin Santana have by-far been Adam’s best three players so far this season. It’s easy to write that off to the fact that Adam’s rebuilding, but all three have been truly fantastic (and will make underrated trade pieces when the time comes). The once-discarded Eduardo Nunez has been a nice addition for Zach’s offense, and Matt Carpenter seems to be waking up at an opportune time for a Zach’s second-half run. I’d expect this matchup to play out closely to the projection.

The Magnificent 7-7s vs. SeagerShine- Projection: The Magnificent 7-7s wins 9-4-1

Remember last week when I said that if Frank had any life left on his 2017 season, there’d be signs of life in his matchup with Matt? Well, it turns out that reports of ole Frank’s death have been greatly exaggerated. Not only were there signs of life shown, Frank firmly planted himself in the playoff conversation. We all know the saying “just make the playoffs, then anything can happen” …. but how far is Frank willing to go to push the issue and attempt to make the playoffs? On the flip side of this matchup, Ben’s jaw-dropping offense (based largely on strong performances from Gary Sanchez, Lorenzo Cain, and Justin Smoak (!)), didn’t save him from taking a *rough* loss at the hands of Zach (thanks, J.A. Happ). The projections will, as always, be down on Frank, but I think this will be a really solid, entertaining matchup.

Mookie Monsters vs. Logan’s Heroes- Projection: Mookie Monsters wins 9-4-1

Gregg only won two offensive categories last week! Gregg won by 4. If this were the NBA, we’ve already reached the point of the season where Gregg could find spots to rest his stars. Bobby’s offense was bad last week too (probably worse than Gregg’s when you consider Gregg rested his offense on Sunday), so some positive regression may be in store in this matchup. Bobby’s pitching staff also had a rough week in week 10: His final ERA was 4.99 in 39.2 IP despite Max Scherzer posting a 1.26 ERA in 14.1 IP. Yikes. This projection seems decently close, but we’ll see how it pans out.

A Krismas Story vs. Super Gurriel Bros- Projection: 7-7-0 tie

The matchup of the week! This one would carry even more hype had Matt taken care of business against Frank, but the truth remains that this matchup features two teams that will *probably* make the playoffs. What’s more, the projections say this matchup is so evenly matched that it’ll finish knotted up. Though it’s only moderately exceeded expectations, McKinnon’s team has been nothing short of exceptional thru 10 weeks; Matt’s squad has arguably been the surprise team of the first half. In other words, there’s plenty of story lines heading into this one.

Acuna Matata vs. Joe Buck Yourself- Projection: Acuna Matata wins 9-4-1

Things have picked up a little bit in La Casa de Acuna Matata, and one would *think* it should be another strong week before the second half starts. However, the margin for error is reaaaaaal small, so taking care of business every single week is critically important. Another (large) piece of Van’s puzzle has officially arrived; Lew Brinson should provide Van’s lineup with a nice boost, and he should be an offensive fixture for the foreseeable future. He should be able to field a full active lineup before August.

Sticking to the theme of the past few weeks, there’s a lot of moving around in the latest version of the season-long standings projection:

Rank Team Win Loss Tie % % ∆ GB
1 Mookie Monsters 196 94 18 .676 E
2 South Correa 174 115 19 .602 -.055 21.5
3 A Krismas Story 163 131 14 .554 +.020 35
4 Acuna Matata 160 130 18 .552 -.041 36
5 The Disabled List 160 133 15 .546 +.015 37.5
6 Super Gurriel Bros 156 139 13 .529 +.022 42.5
7 The Magnificent 7-7s 152 145 11 .512 +.053 47.5
8 Inconsistent Team 141 152 15 .481 -.097 56.5
9 Logan’s Heroes 133 158 17 .457 -.002 63.5
10 SeagerShine 119 173 16 .408 +.081 78
11 Sausage Party 115 178 15 .392 +.018 82.5
12 Joe Buck Yourself 82 210 16 .281 -.029 115

Most Overperforming Team: SeagerShine (Now projected to win 23 games more than original projection)

Most Underperforming Team: Inconsistent Team (Now projected to win 29 games fewer than original projection)

To date, the season-long projections are, on average, 10 games (in either direction) of each team’s win-loss-tie record.

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