LORG 2017 Week 12 Primer

Written by: Ray Butler

We’ve made it to the second half.

Week 11 literally featured four blowouts and a nail biter. There wasn’t much drama, but the blowouts did lead to some more moving around in the standings. Now we officially find ourselves “down the stretch” as we begin our second rotation of facing opponents. There’s still plenty of time to make your dreams happen; there’s also still plenty of time for your dreams to be crushed. Week 12 is chalked full of important matchups.

Here’s our week 12 projections:

South Correa vs. Super Gurriel Bros- Projection: South Correa wins 9-4-1

Really important fantasy matchups are meant for the final weeks of the regular season, but this really seems as important as a matchup can get in week 12. Even crazier, there are two more matchups that are just as important. Matt no longer has the cushion he once had (thanks in large part to getting roughed up by McKinnon last week), but Xander Bogaert’s power show on Sunday Night Baseball makes me think he’ll continue positively regressing in the power department. John seems to lose a different player to injury every single week, but things got back on track last week for the Correans with a dominating victory over Caleb (John had over 150 TB last week (!)). John squeaked out a victory in a nail-biter the first time these guys played this year, and the result of this matchup could send this pair in several different directions. There are huge playoff implications here.

SeagerShine vs. Sausage Party- Projection: Sausage Party wins 8-5-1

This specific matchup is probably the game that the projections were most off when they were created. The fact of the matter is that Frank did an outstanding job of finding young active players who had low expectations coming into the 2017 season, throwing them in his lineup, and benefiting from their gigantic success (hello Conforto) (hello Healy). Granted, he’s back under .500 for the first time in awhile, but Frank should be able to take care of business this week. That is, if Adam’s offense comes back to earth. Take a look at his offensive stats from week 11 and try and figure out HOW the only offensive category he won was stolen bases. Ridiculous. Zach can be a real jerk sometimes. Know what I think about a couple of times a week? What could Jake Arrieta fetch in a trade right now? It’s especially sad when you compare it to offers I know for a fact that RC received for Arrieta at times last season. Sad times.

A Krismas Story vs. The Mitch is Back- Projection: A Krismas Story wins 8-5-1

A matchup between the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in this league. That’s right, it’s our reality. Both of these teams are so far above .500, I think it would be pretty shocking at this point if either missed the playoffs. Lately, Edwin Encarnacion has been carrying the torch for McKinnon’s offense, and Lorenzo Cain has been on fire for Ben. From a holistic standpoint, there should be plenty of fireworks in this matchup. Regardless of the outcome and what the projections predict, let’s hope for a wide margin here.

Mookie Monsters vs. Joe Buck Yourself- Projection: Mookie Monsters wins 9-4-1

Gregg has been pushed a little bit here lately, but he’ll get a break and get to glide into the second half of the season. Van’s offense has been solid the past few weeks (even though Lew Brinson has been painful to watch so far), so stealing a category or two certainly isn’t out of the question. Simply put, though, there’s just not enough firepower for an upset.

Logan’s Heroes vs. Inconsistent Team- Projection: Very Good Team wins 9-4-1

I really want to think that Caleb is primed to pull things together and spoil some people’s dreams during the second half of the season. I want to believe! However, it’s hard for me to get excited about this specific matchup. There’s really nothing to spoil here. These two pulled off a big-time trade in the offseason that centered around Jose Altuve and Madison Bumgarner, but that’s basically the extent the intrigue here. Don’t count Bobby out of the playoff race just yet, though. If he can get past Caleb, Max Scherzer and Altuve can carry him further than you’d probably think.

The Disabled List vs. The Lindor Truffles- Projection: The Lindor Truffles wins 8-6-0

An 8-6 projected victory for Ray in week 1 flipped into an 8-6 victory for Zach in week 1 this season. Surprisingly true fun fact: This is time THIS SEASON that Ray’s been over .500. Zach’s offense was insanely good in week 11 (thanks in no small part to Dexter Fowler hitting a HR in four straight games and the continued reemergence of Andrew McCutchen), but the pitching was solid as well. Ray’s squad performed well in week 11 too, but his margin of victory was aided by the opponent. Much like John vs. Matt and McKinnon vs. Ben, the landscape and outlook of the playoff picture will be shaped by this matchup.

Here’s how the season-long standings projection looks after the first half of the season:

Rank Team Win Loss Tie % % ∆ GB
1 Mookie Monsters 194 96 18 .669 -.007
2 South Correa 176 113 19 .609 -.048 17.5
3 A Krismas Story 167 127 14 .568 +.034 29
4 The Lindor Truffles 162 127 19 .561 -.032 31.5
5 The Disabled List 163 130 15 .556 +.025 32.5
6 The Mitch is Back 153 144 11 .515 +.056 44.5
7 Super Gurriel Bros 152 145 11 .512 +.005 45.5
8 Inconsistent Team 139

 

154 15 .474 -.104 56.5
9 Logan’s Heroes 137 155 16 .469 +.010 58
10 SeagerShine 118 174 16 .404 +.077 77
11 Sausage Party 113 180 15 .386 +.012 82.5
12 Joe Buck Yourself 80 212 16 .274 -.036 115

Most Overperforming Team: SeagerShine (Now projected to win 22 games more than original projection)

Most Underperforming Team: Inconsistent Team (Now projected to win 31 games less than original projection)

Thru 11 weeks, the season-long projections are, on average, 10.7 games in either direction of each team’s win-loss-tie record.

 

 

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