LORG 2017 Week 13 Primer

Written by: Ray Butler

Should Van sell high on Cody Bellinger (aka Baseball Jesus) to expedite his rebuild?

I feel sorry for the poor chap who has the play McKinnon in week 14 (the week of the all-star break plus the week after)…………………………………………………………….

Here’s our matchups for week 13:

A Krismas Story vs. Sausage Party- Projection: A Krismas Story wins 9-4-1

Adam had a huge breakthrough win last week against Frank while McKinnon suffered a disappointing loss against Ben. Will that trend continue into this week, or will the ship right itself?

The Mitch is Back vs. South Correa- Projection: South Correa wins 9-4-1

This is an extremely important matchup both for the landscaping of the playoff picture AND for the season-long projections. We really haven’t talked enough about how good Ben’s team has been. Based on the results of this season, John shouldn’t beat Ben 9-4-1. But, as you know, anything can happen each and every week. This is no doubt an important contest.

Logan’s Heroes vs. Joe Buck Yourself- Projection: Logan’s Heroes wins 10-4-0

Bobby continues to hover around the .500 mark and finds himself only four games out of the playoffs. He can continue to make leeway this week against Van. Man, Lewis Brinson had a roughhhhhhhh first go in the big leagues. Aaron Hicks is on the shelf for about a month (I wonder if Van knows?), so Bobby has a grand opportunity go continue gaining ground this week.

Mookie Monsters vs. The Disabled List- Projection: Mookie Monsters wins 9-4-1

Zach’s team is bruised and battered. Andrelton Simmons was called in to hopefully stop the bleeding, and he’s had a tremendous season for his standards. It was undoubtedly a lovely add for Zach. Gregg has now won more than twice the amount of games that he’s lost, and that feels like something. This could certainly be a future playoff matchup. Does Zach have an encore performance up his sleeve after besting Gregg in week 2?

Super Gurriel Bros vs. Inconsistent Team- Projection: Inconsistent Team wins 8-6-0

I don’t know the particulars, but for awhile on Sunday it looked like Caleb was going to win his matchup against Bobby. It also looked for most of the week that Matt would beat John by a comfortable margin. Neither of those happened (though Matt did squeak by John), and here we are. Kyle Schwarber being demoted to AAA based solely on performance is basically the perfect epitome of Caleb’s season. The outcome of this matchup should be flip-flopped at the minimum.

The Lindor Truffles vs. SeagerShine- Projection: The Lindor Truffles wins 10-4-0

Both Frank and Ray had disappointing losses in week 12, now they square off against each other a week later. Both Corey Seager and Michael Conforto avoided serious injuries the past few days (Seager pulled up lame while running the bases with an injured hamstring; Conforto was hit by a pitch in the wrist, x-rays came back negative), which is nice. Carlos Rodon will make his long awaited season debut this week, so that’s a positive for Ray. Despite Frank being pounded into submission last week, this contest should play much closer than the projection claims.

Here’s the updated season-long standings projection:

Rank Team Win Loss Tie % % ∆ GB
1 Mookie Monsters 196 94 18 .676 E
2 South Correa 173 116 19 .599 -.058 22.5
3 The Disabled List 163 127 18 .562 +.031 33
4 A Krismas Story 164 131 13 .556 +.022 34.5
5 The Lindor Truffles 159 127 22 .556 -.037 35
6 The Mitch is Back 157 141 10 .527 +.068 43
7 Super Gurriel Bros 155 142 11 .522 +.015 44.5
8 Logan’s Heroes 141 150 17 .485 +.026 55.5
9 Inconsistent Team 134 158 16 .459 -.119 63
10 SeagerShine 116 177 15 .396 +.069 81.5
11 Sausage Party 116 178 14 .395 +.021 82
12 Joe Buck Yourself 78 214 16 .267 -.043 119

*Frank’s percent change is nice*

Most Overperforming Team: SeagerShine (Now projected to win 20 games more than original projection)

Most Underperforming Team: Inconsistent Team (Now projected to win 36 games fewer than original projection)

Thru 12 weeks, the original season-long projections are, on average (and with outliers included), 12 games away from each team’s current projected win-loss-tie record.

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