LORG 2017 Week 4 Primer

Written by: Ray Butler

We’ve got a pretty solid slate of games this week, folks. A tenth of the LORG regular season is now in the rearview mirror. Are the current standings the way things will look at playoff time? Of course not. But I know this much: Regardless of how things will look fifteen weeks from now, you’d rather be 3rd in the standings right now instead of 10th.

Sausage Party vs. Super Gurriel Bros- Projection: Super Gurriel Bros wins 10-4-0

The Bros keep consistently meeting or exceeding expectations and Sausage Party continues rebuilding. Not only is the record pretty for Super Gurriel Bros, but Yuli Gurriel (now batting .321 in 2017) is beginning to show a little return on investment. If the real Kevin Gausman ever stands up, this team gets even scarier. For Sausage Party, it simply seems like whenever Greg Bird can get on track, this team’s offense will begin clicking. But when will that be? Fun fact: Because of active roster limitations due to a massive amount of prospects and a couple of guys being on the DL, Sausage Party has one bench spot occupied by a healthy position player. That position player is Sandy Leon.

Dominican DDs vs. Very Good Team- Projection: Very Good Team wins 9-5-0

How much will the loss of Madison Bumgarner hurt Very Good Team? Might it unfortunately be dwindled to Good Team? Alright Team? We’ll see. What we already know is that this is a matchup of two teams that have gotten off to a pretty good start. Let me tell you about the four most important offensive players in this matchup: Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, A.J. Pollock, Mitch Haniger. One of these things is not like the others. Really though, so far, as these four players go, their teams go as well. Very Good Team has played to its projection so far (which isn’t a bad thing) and it feels like the Dominican DDs (whose three matchups this season have ALL resulted in ties) are so close to getting over the hump. This will be a good one.

Joe Buck Yourself vs. The Disabled List- Projection: The Disabled List wins 9-4-1

I realized that if I attempted to sugar coat Joe Buck Yourself’s current situation all season, I’d be saying a lot of the same things every single week. So here you go: Joe Buck Yourself’s active roster is the old, hairy, homeless gentleman who looks like a coal miner that hangs out in the entrance of a Wal-Mart with a “Why lie? I need a beer.” sign. What the homeless man doesn’t realize is that the Wal-Mart is in a rural town that houses no more than a few thousand people, most of whom won’t give the man a dime since, to them, all he has to do is “put the sign down and apply for a job” to reach his dreams. What I’m trying to say is that Joe Buck Yourself’s active roster is not good. Meanwhile, The Disabled List is getting some otherworldly production from Eric Thames, which makes a hamstring injury to George Springer more manageable. In coach speak, this should be a week for TDL to “get in some work” and to “work on some stuff”.

Mookie Monsters vs. A Krismas Story- Projection: Mookie Monsters wins 9-4-1

I tried to find an adjective to describe the performances on offense and pitching for both of these teams in week 3. My original goal was to come up with four different words. But sometimes less is more, so let’s just say that both of these squads had “stupefying” performances in week 3. Now they face each other. It seems as though the elimination of streaming before the 2018 season is a foregone conclusion, so now it truly feels like a game of “Just How Much Can A Krismas Story/Other Streamers Irritate Us?” The answer is a lot. Edwin Encarnacion is back to doing Edwin Encarnacion things, and literally everybody on Mookie Monsters is locked in. The projection doesn’t necessarily paint this picture, but this matchup could turn out to be incredibly close.

Logan’s Heroes vs. SeagerShine- Projection: Logan’s Heroes wins 9-4-1

The hour-glass ran out and the carriage turned back into a pumpkin for SeagerShine in week 3. But a quick look at the week-long stats reveals that SeagerShine was opponent-unlucky and would have been victorious if paired against almost any other team in the league. The team has still overachieved so far in 2017, thanks largely to big contributions from Marcell Ozuna, Michael Conforto, and Jake Lamb. Logan’s Heroes have overachieved, too, and they’re coming off a convincing victory against a playoff-projected opponent. Since a poor week 1 performance, it’s been nothing but positive regression for Logan’s Heroes. Boomstick Cruz is swinging a hot stick, and the offense in general has been good despite Hanley Ramirez only having one home run to his name so far this season.

South Correa vs. The Syndergaawds- Projection: North Correa wins 8-4-2

Remember in National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation when Clark put a down-payment on a pool before he received his Christmas bonus? Then, the bonus finally arrived in the mail on Christmas Eve and he (excitedly) opened in front of his entire family only to realize it was a membership to the jelly of the month club? That’s basically been The Syndergaawds so far in 2017. Lots of hype with nothing to show for it. To make matters worse, it now gets to face defending-champion South Correa. Sadly, Miguel Cabrera will likely miss the entire week for SC while Jason Kipnis and Trea Turner should be a full-go for TS. Starling Marte has been sent to a real nice farm for the time being. The Syndergaawds’ winless streak will increase to four weeks.

Here’s an update on the season-long standings projection:

Rank Team Win Loss Tie % % ∆ GB
1 Mookie Monsters 197 93 18 .679 +.003
2 North Correa 184 102 22 .643 -.014 11
3 Very Good Team 168 126 14 .571 +.007 31
4 The Syndergaawds 162 129 17 .557 -.036 35.5
5 A Krismas Story 158 137 13 .541 +.007 41.5
6 The Disabled List 156 139 13 .529 -.002 43.5
7 Super Gurriel Bros 154 141 13 .522 +.015 45.5
8 Logan’s Heroes 141 153 14 .480 +.021 58
9 Dominican DDs 141 157 10 .473 +.014 60
10 Sausage Party 108 187 13 .366 -.008 91.5
11 SeagerShine 100 192 16 .342 +.015 98
12 Joe Buck Yourself 84 205 19 .291 -.019 112.5

Most Overachieving Team: Logan’s Heroes (Now projected to win 7 more games than original projection)

Most Underachieiving Team: The Syndergaawds (Now projected to win 10 fewer games than original projection)

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s